The GTA housing market is starting to show an interesting shift.
There were fewer homes coming onto the market in August, with new listings down 14.1% compared with last year. Sales were also down, but by a much smaller 2.1%.
That difference is important. Inventory is beginning to tighten, which means buyers may not have quite as much choice as they did earlier in the year. If that continues, increased competition for good properties could eventually put some upward pressure on prices.
Prices, however, remain below last year's levels:
Average GTA selling price: $993,410 — down 2.7% year-over-year
TRREB benchmark price: down 4.5% year-over-year
Compared with July, the benchmark was essentially unchanged, while the average selling price edged slightly higher.
What does this mean?
For buyers, conditions are still relatively favourable, particularly compared with the market of a few years ago. But the window of abundant inventory may be starting to narrow. Buyers who have been waiting could find themselves facing more competition if listings continue to decline.
For sellers, this is an encouraging development. We're not back in a strong seller's market, but fewer competing listings could make it easier for a well-priced, well-presented home to stand out.
My takeaway: The GTA market remains fairly balanced, but we're seeing the first signs that the supply-demand equation may be changing. The next few months—and what happens with interest rates and the broader economy—will tell us whether this develops into a more meaningful shift.
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